Originally posted: December 1, 2017
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Carryovers from the DFS LINEUP ADVICE (THUR/SUN/MON) – WEEK 13 post are nothing new, but this week’s primary slate roster has a whopping five of them, including the entire trio of receivers. There is a tiny bit of fresh analysis to add to the holdovers as injury statuses become more clear this late in the week.
Also, while it should go without saying, the reason for the overlapping players is simple. The players featured have strong cases for usage, and if they make sense on the Thursday through Monday slate, they should make sense for the main slate, too.
Furthermore, I’m not merely throwing random suggestions out there so I can puff my chest out when I hit on a low-owned sleeper, I’m using the lineups in GPPs that I share with you. Moving on, the main slate lineup features a different triggerman and a tight end stack partner swap, too.
Tom Brady (NE): $9,300 @ Bills
Don’t get me wrong, I love Philip Rivers still and have him on other FanDuel main slate GPP rosters. With Le’Veon Bell (the RB1 on the Thur/Sun/Mon) lineup not available on the main slate, I’m happy to pass on some of my savings from spinning down at RB on to spinning up at QB to Brady.
The G.O.A.T. is in the midst of another excellent season. He ranks second in pass attempts (408), third in completion percentage (68.4%), second in touchdown passes (26), and is tied for first in yards per pass attempt (8.3). He’s also first in adjusted yards per pass attempt (9.2), first in passing yards per game (306.7, the only mark north of 300 per game), and first by a healthy margin in Quarterback Rating, per Pro-Football-Reference.
Brady and the boys head to New Era Field this weekend as 8.5-point favorites with an implied over/under total of 28.25 points, per Pinnacle. Brady’s clicking on all cylinders with a staggering 10 touchdown passes in his last three games, and in his last three games against the Bills in Buffalo, he’s bludgeoned them with 11 touchdown passes while averaging 380.67 yards passing per game. Personnel changes year to year, but it’s safe to say Brady’s had little trouble shredding whoever the Bills have trotted out against him in Buffalo.
Jerick McKinnon (MIN): $6,100 @ Falcons
McKinnon replaces Bell from the Thur/Sun/Mon lineup, and while he’s obviously a massive downgrade, I like his potential for low ownership. This is especially so since his pass-catching prowess should draw a bigger crowd at DraftKings as a result of their full-point PPR format compared to FanDuel’s half-point PPR format — with a big ceiling. McKinnon has fallen into a slightly bigger than complementary back role with Latavius Murray over the last few weeks, but he’s still carried the ball a minimum of 10 times in seven straight games, and 13 or more times in six of seven contests.
Furthermore, Murray’s limitations as a pass catcher make him more game script dependent than McKinnon, whose pass-catching skills will likely benefit him if the three-point underdog Vikings fall behind early in Atlanta. The matchup also supports the notion that the Vikings might opt to attack the Falcons through the air with their superior pass-catching back right out of the chute.
Football Outsiders (FO) ranks the Falcons 20th defending running backs in the passing game, and Atlanta is tied for the most targets allowed (94). They are alone in first in the most receptions allowed (71), ninth in receiving yards allowed, and tied for seventh in receiving touchdowns allowed (three) to running backs this year, per Pro-Football-Reference. Finally, the game’s small spread and 47-point over/under total leaves the door open to a back-and-forth shootout that would enhance McKinnon’s scoring potential.
Marshawn Lynch (OAK): $6,200 vs. Giants
Since talking up Lynch for the DFS LINEUP ADVICE (THUR/SUN/MON) – WEEK 13 post, there have been developments worth noting. First, Amari Cooper remains out of practice and appears more likely to miss the game than play in it at this point. Second, Lynch also didn’t practice Thursday.
However, Lynch’s absence isn’t particularly alarming since it’s not injury-related. Obviously, his status should be monitored, but it doesn’t appear there’s any reason to expect him to miss this week’s game.
Keenan Allen (LAC): $8,100 vs. Browns
Brandin Cooks (NE): $7,600 @ Bills
Dede Westbrook (JAC): $4,700 vs. Colts
This is the exact trio of wideouts suggested on the DFS LINEUP ADVICE (THUR/SUN/MON) – WEEK 13 post, and you can read about why I love them all this week here. I did note in Cooks’ write-up that Chris Hogan’s status for the weekend wasn’t entirely clear, but it looks like Hogan is likely out another week.
Rob Gronkowski (NE): $8,100 @ Bills
Gronk replaces Hunter Henry at tight end on this team, and as is the case with the Thur/Sun/Mon team, this one features a QB/WR/TE stack. This stack has a bit more upside, though.
Gronk is doing his usual excellent things on the field, and among tight ends this year, he ranks seventh in targets (74), tied for seventh in receptions (46), tied for second in touchdown receptions (seven), and alone in second in receiving yards per game (70.2). He’s also second in red zone targets (16) at the tight end position, according to Lineups.com. Gronk’s coming off of a 5-82-2 showing against the Dolphins last week.
While it’s not predictive, Gronk has enjoyed playing in his backyard. You can check out his career game lines in Buffalo in this tweet from Evan Silva (spoiler alert, the numbers are excellent).
Josh Lambo (JAC): $4,600 vs. Colts
In Week 7 at Indianapolis, Lambo scored 10 FanDuel points going two-for-two on field-goal attempts and nailing all three of his point-after attempts. He’s successfully converted 10 of 11 field-goal attempts with a season-high (and career-high) 56-yard field goal, and he’s converted nine or 10 point-after attempts.
The Colts are tied for the fourth most field-goal attempts against them this year and tied for third in point-after attempts against them. The Jaguars are 10-point favorites with an implied over/under total of 25.5 points, so there should be plenty field goals and point-after attempts to be had for Lambo.
Chargers D/ST (LAC): $5,300 vs Browns
The Chargers DST is a holdover from the DFS LINEUP ADVICE (THUR/SUN/MON) – WEEK 13 post, and my reasoning for suggesting them there applies to using them here, too. Don’t get cute and spend down on defense, the scoring upside for this unit is well worth budgeting for.
Source: Fantasy Pros
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