Originally posted: December 1, 2017
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We’ve got our biggest slate in months, with 28 teams to choose from. This is the first slate in a while where we won’t be paying up for a stud running back, as there are a pair of excellent value plays at the position. Likewise, I am doing the unthinkable and fading the Jags DST for the first time in over a month. Let’s take a look at what I settled on for the week.
Tom Brady (NE): $9,300 @ BUF
Yes, Brady is questionable with an Achilles injury, but to be fair, he is virtually always playing banged up, and still getting it done at an incredible level. Over his past six weeks, his low fantasy point total is 17.18. That includes matchups against Denver and the Chargers. He just needs to get 18.6 this week to hit value, and you can bet on that against the Bills, who have been falling apart before our eyes. There isn’t a safe stack option with Brady, so I’ll recommend rostering him “naked” this week.
Jamaal Williams (GB): $5,700 vs TB
Say hello to the lock of the week. Our projected ownership rates have him in near 50% of the lineups, and likely 70% in cash games. His price is just too low for someone with 20 carries and 4 targets per game. In his three starts, he has now given fantasy owners over 15 fantasy points per game. He needs just 11.4 this week, and seeing that he doesn’t go up against the Steelers (4th toughest), Ravens (7th toughest) or Bears (13th toughest) like the last three weeks, I’d say he is a safe bet to hit that value target against the struggling Bucs.
Carlos Hyde (SF): $7,000 @ CHI
This doesn’t have much to do with the matchup, as the Bears are a middle of the line opponent. Rather, it has to do with the fact that Hyde has 50 targets in his past 6 weeks which is more Mike Evans, Keenan Allen, A.J. Green and many others in that time frame. Plus, he gets 15 carries per game. With that type of opportunity and with a significantly better quarterback under center this week, he is a good bet to post another 14+ fantasy points this week.
Mike Evans (TB): $7,500 @ GB
Evans hasn’t busted out for over 100 receiving yards in a game this season, but he has seen at least 8 targets in every game (that he didn’t get ejected) this season, and you can’t beat that level of consistent opportunity. With Jameis Winston back this week and going into his easiest matchup of the season versus the Packers, he is a strong investment at a surprisingly low price.
Davante Adams (GB): $6,500 vs TB
Don’t look now, but Adams has become a borderline star this season even without Aaron Rodgers. He will likely be a top 30 pick next season in fantasy drafts but is somehow crazy cheap. He is top 10 in targets this year and has seen his role increase as the season goes on. In fact, over the past three weeks, he has posted 16.7, 16.6 and 17.5 fantasy points against the #4 toughest defense against WRs, #7 and #13. This week, he goes against the #31 Bucs, so lock him into your lineups.
Keenan Allen (LAC): $8,100 vs CLE
The Chargers are surging right now and Allen is a major reason why. He has now given fantasy owners 28.7 and 34.2 fantasy points in the last two games. While it would be unreasonable to expect that to continue, he is getting more targets right now than anyone else in football and has one of the easiest matchups of the week so he is a stellar play even at his price.
Jared Cook (OAK): $5,500 vs NYG
Last week, Cook killed us in what should have been a great matchup, and you might be nervous of another stinker, but he draws the Giants this week. Fantasy tight ends scored 58% more points against New York than the league average. Seeing that Amari Cooper is likely out and Michael Crabtree is suspended, Cook seems like a lock for 8+ targets and a good bet to add to his over 300 yards over the last five weeks.
Wil Lutz (NO): $5,000 vs CAR
Check this out (tweet from Jim Sannes – @JimSannes):
- Updated wind speeds through Week 12 for kickers in FD perfect lineups: 2, 1, 4, 0, 0, 4, 0, 0, 6, 0, 0, 0. Average of 1.42 mph.
- Average for D/ST is 7.5 mph.
As you know, there isn’t any wind in a dome, so Lutz is in play, plus he has been among the most consistent kickers all season with no fewer than 7 fantasy points, and at least 10 in 8 weeks. The Panthers have a strong defense, but the Saints’ offense is powerful enough that Lutz should again have plenty of scoring opportunities.
Los Angeles Chargers (LAC): $5,300 vs CLE
Surprise! I’m not picking the Jags for once. It actually isn’t about Blaine Gabbert looked great against them or that Telvin Smith is likely out, but rather that the Chargers are just THAT good. They’ve got two of the top five pass rushers in the NFL, the best cover corner in the league and are on fire lately. They have now compiled 85 fantasy points over the last 5 games, and this week they draw the Browns, who are by far the easiest opponent for DSTs.
Source: Fantasy Pros
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