Originally posted: November 28, 2017
Projecting a kicker’s output isn’t as difficult or random as you may think—in fact, taking a look at Vegas odds is the best way to accurately predict a kicker’s weekly potential. By focusing in on the team implied point totals, game totals, and favorites, we can get a cumulative idea of how an offense will perform when it comes to settling for field goals, distance of kicks, and the like. For a more detailed explanation on using Vegas odds for successfully streaming kickers, I suggest checking out Chris Raybon’s DFS Playbook Strategy article, which is packed with info on the most profitable way to predict the position.
Another metric useful in projecting a kicker’s output is 4for4’s schedule-adjusted fantasy points allowed or aFPA. By removing the schedule bias, we can compare matchups in an apples-to-apples manner. By Week 4, there’s a solid sample size to work from, and the info gets more trustworthy with each data-filled week.
The goal in streaming is to roster a player who will return starting kicker fantasy points, and Week 12 wasn’t exactly my best. Chandler Catanzaro put up nine points as kicker 12, with Nick Rose ranking 15th with eight points. 4for4’s optimal streaming kicker has 167 total points on the season, enough for first place among all kickers in the league. Let’s move forward to Week 13- time to secure those fantasy playoff spots.
In order to provide advice that you can actually implement, candidates for streaming must be available in at least 40% of Yahoo fantasy leagues.
Graham Gano (CAR) @ NO
The Panthers’ specialist sits as kicker 12 on the season and has missed just three kicks through the first 11 games. He gets a comfy dome in Week 13, as Carolina heads to New Orleans for Sunday’s contest. The over/under is a lofty 48, which bodes well for Gano’s scoring potential, plus the Panthers seem to have found a new gear offensively in recent weeks, dropping 100 points in their past three matchups. Gano is free in 71% of Yahoo leagues and makes an excellent streamer for Week 13.
Jake Elliott (PHI) @ SEA
Despite an early exit in Week 11 due to a concussion, Elliott hit all four extra points and a 45-yard field goal last week. The Eagles’ rookie is currently 11th in kicker fantasy points with one less game played and is in a good position to help your fantasy team win in Week 13. Philly’s showdown in Seattle has an over/under of 47 points, with the Eagles favored to win by five points. Elliott is rostered in 51% of Yahoo leagues so this may be your last week to grab him.
Kai Forbath (MIN) @ ATL
With the fifth-highest fantasy points among kickers, Forbath is finding success in the Vikings high-scoring offense this season. At 9-2, Minnesota is averaging 24.6 points per game, with just three games in single digits. This week, they travel south to Atlanta, for a contest with an over/under of 47 points, 22 implied for the Vikings. Forbath should be a solid play on Sunday and is available in 47% of Yahoo leagues.
Nick Rose (WAS) @ DAL
Thursday night games aren’t the sexiest when it comes to fantasy, but this matchup could see a decent amount of points by both the Redskins and Cowboys. The over/under is a respectable 44, with 21.25 points implied for Washington. Rose is averaging 7.8 points since taking over the starting role from Dustin Hopkins in Week 7 and should post similar numbers in this NFC East contest. He’s currently rostered in 7% of Yahoo leagues.
Stephen Hauschka (BUF) vs. NE
AFC East rivals Buffalo and New England clash on Sunday with the largest over/under on the slate set at 49 points. The Patriots are favored by 7.5, with the Bills boasting an implied total of 20.75. This still allows for plenty of scoring opportunities for Hauschka, who’s coming off a solid Week 12 performance at Arrowhead Stadium. Buffalo’s placekicker ranks eighth overall among kickers this season and is free in 68% of Yahoo fantasy leagues.
Chandler Catanzaro (NYJ vs. KC)
New York is the home underdog on Sunday, in a Week 13 tilt with the struggling Chiefs. The game’s over/under sits at 43.5 points, with 20.25 implied for the Jets. Catanzaro has posted eight or more fantasy points in three of his last four games, which could certainly help your team this week. His ownership is only 6% heading into Week 13, so he’s there if you need him.
Other Streaming Candidates:
- Blair Walsh (SEA) vs. PHI – 33% owned
- Giorgio Tavecchio (OAK) vs. NYG – 8% owned
- Phil Dawson (ARI) vs. LAR – 6% owned
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